Friday, November 19, 2010

Free Internet and totalitarianism

This whole internet revolution was lauded on the premise that the technology will reduce the transmission cost of information. Everyone will posses same access to information and there will be minimal arbitrage in access. One of the expectation was that there will be a single fact. You cant lie and get away with that. Internet is supposed to make totalitarian regime difficult to manage as people will have access to other sources of information. 1984 will be only a fiction. People will be able to cross-check statements and will not be hoodwinked by lying statesman.

But has that worked. When I see these groups of ill-informed media analysts, pundits who distort fact to prove their agenda and get away with that. When I see people believe those lies and persuaded to be led by them. Even though checking facts is a mouse click away, people believe outright lies.

That forces me to believe that facts are as good as source. We human do have a need of trusting someone and being led by them. Thats why anyone can distort facts and if he/she has an convincing argument to make or he/she can harness the infallibility present in human nature, that person will be able to carry his/her word. So 1984 is not a fiction, there can easily be another hitler.

"Opinion matters and not truth because we human minimize the usage of rational capacity"

Sunday, November 7, 2010

simple vs complex problems

"If you have a simple problem, you can offer a simple solution. But the economy is a hugely complex problem. So we either simplify the problem and offer a solution, or embrace the complexity and do nothing"

One can apply the same learnings to business. Businesses are very complicated problems not as complicated as economics but certainly more complicated than the pure sciences. One can build complex models which doesn't have any solution, or cant monitor the solution or dont know the inputs to the solution. So the problem has to be simplified and the limitations well understood. This makes the solution easy to use and dynamic so that the simple solution can change with situations.